MIP Perspectives
Ed Miliband is playing a dangerous party game on AV
written by: Alistair Thompson
There has been much concentration on the splits within the Coalition of late, mainly over the differing views of the Conservatives and Lib Dems on the Alternative Vote (AV), but Labour are more split than the Coalition.
The Tory right have been demanding that Cameron is more strident in his denouncement of any attempt to ditch First Past The Post (FPTP) and replace it with AV, which even supporters of changing the voting system describe as a ‘miserable little compromise’ (thank you Mr Clegg).
While on the left of the Coalition the Lib Dems have been pushing their leadership, not their leader (who many are expunging from literature and websites), to be equally as strident in defending AV.
But is anyone really surprised. Certainly not the MPs, or even most political commentators, as the spilt is straight down party lines. The only surprise has been the ferocity of some of the behind the scenes briefings, starting with the spat between the outspoken Baroness Warsi and the cant-talking Chris Huhne.
It is certain that these briefings will continue well beyond May 5th and while this will provide Messers Cameron and Clegg with some difficult party management issues and increase the tensions within the Cabinet, in the long term they are not Coalition deal-breakers, more irritants.
And Labour knows this, which is why they are not trying very hard to exploit it.
The more interesting story, and one less well told, is that of the splits within the Labour Party who by virtue of being in opposition have missed out on the full glare of public scrutiny and whose MPs have displayed more discipline in keeping a lid on the rift than the Lib Dems and Conservative could ever hope for.
But the rift is there.
A quick glance at the facts proves this, a majority of Labour MPs support the No campaign and this includes many of the so called Big Beasts and Ed Miliband’s own deputies, which explains why so many of them have been keeping a low profile over recent weeks. No one wants to upset the Boss.
But yet again Ed Miliband is failing to carry the bulk of his parliamentary party.
In normal times this would be troubling Labour’s strategists on Victoria Street as Ed Miliband is looking increasingly like a leader without a party, but instead they seem to be completely content with letting this drift.
Why?
The only answer is that they know that Labour will make gains in next month’s election, which his advisers hope will bolster Miliband’s position and because Labour lack any clear policies (apart from opposing the cuts) that their troops can rally around..
This is a high risk strategy for Ed Miliband, because if the Coalition can limp on long enough for the economy to surge into recovery and for unemployment to start falling significantly, Labour’s dearth of policies and splits will soon resurface.
And if this happens, Miliband is in for some real trouble and the only question that would remain is when would Ed Balls, the ambitious Shadow Chancellor run for the leadership?
Image(s) courtesy of: FlickR/Labour Party 2011
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